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Van: Sjoerdsma, S. 

Verzonden: woensdag 16 januari 2013 11:25

Aan: Toor van T.; GC-Commissie-buza

Onderwerp: Rondvraag PV - Syrie

Beste Theo, collega’s,

Ik zou graag het mogelijk gebruik van chemische wapens in Syrië als
agendapunt willen opnemen in de rondvraag van de PV morgen. 

Ik zou in dat kader graag een reactie willen van minister Timmermans op
het volgende bericht:

http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2013/01/15/secret_state_departme
nt_cable_chemical_weapons_used_in_syria

A secret State Department cable has concluded that the Syrian military
likely used chemical weapons against its own people in a deadly attack
last month, The Cable has learned. 

United States diplomats in Turkey conducted a previously undisclosed,
intensive investigation into claims that Syrian President Bashar
al-Assad used chemical weapons, and made what an Obama administration
official who reviewed the cable called a "compelling case" that Assad's
military forces had used a deadly form of poison gas. 

The cable, signed by the U.S. consul general in Istanbul, Scott Frederic
Kilner, and sent to State Department headquarters in Washington last
week, outlined the results of the consulate's investigation into reports
from inside Syria that chemical weapons had been used in the city of
Homs on Dec. 23. 

The consul general's report followed a series of interviews with
activists, doctors, and defectors, in what the administration official
said was one of the most comprehensive efforts the U.S. government has
made to investigate claims by internal Syrian sources. The investigation
included a meeting between the consulate staff and Mustafa al-Sheikh, a
high-level defector who once was a major general in Assad's army and key
official in the Syrian military's WMD program. 

An Obama administration official who reviewed the document, which was
classified at the "secret" level, detailed its contents to The Cable.
"We can't definitely say 100 percent, but Syrian contacts made a
compelling case that Agent 15 was used in Homs on Dec. 23," the official
said. 

The use of chemical weapons by the Assad regime would cross the "red
line" President Barack Obama first established in an Aug. 20 statement.
"We have been very clear to the Assad regime, but also to other players
on the ground, that a red line for us is we start seeing a whole bunch
of chemical weapons moving around or being utilized. That would change
my calculus. That would change my equation," Obama said. 

To date, the administration has not initiated any major policy changes
in response to the classified cable, but a Deputies Committee meeting of
top administration officials is scheduled for this week. 

The report confirms the worst fears of officials who are frustrated by
the current policy, which is to avoid any direct military assistance to
the Syrian rebels and limit U.S. aid to sporadic deliveries of
humanitarian and communications equipment. 

Many believe that Assad is testing U.S. red lines. 

"This reflects the concerns of many in the U.S. government that the
regime is pursuing a policy of escalation to see what they can get away
with as the regime is getting more desperate," the administration
official said. 

The consulate's investigation was facilitated by BASMA, an NGO the State
Department has hired as one of its implementing partners inside Syria.
BASMA connected consular officials with witnesses to the incident and
other first-hand information. 

The official warned that if the U.S. government does not react strongly
to the use of chemical weapons in Homs, Assad may be emboldened to
escalate his use of such weapons of mass destruction. 

"It's incidents like this that lead to a mass-casualty event," the
official said. 

Activist and doctors on the ground in Homs have been circulating
evidence of the Dec. 23 incident over the past three weeks in an attempt
to convince the international community of its veracity. An
Arabic-language report circulated by the rebels' Homs medical committee
detailed the symptoms of several of the victims who were brought to a
makeshift field hospital inside the city and claims that the victims
suffered severe effects of inhaling poisonous gas. 

Activists have also been circulating videos of the victims on YouTube
and Facebook. In one of the videos, victims can be seen struggling for
breath and choking on their own vomit. (More videos, which are graphic,
can be found here, here, here, here, here and here.) 

Experts say the symptoms match the effects of Agent 15, known also by
its NATO code BZ, which is a CX-level incapacitating agent that is
controlled under schedule 2 of the Chemical Weapons Convention, to which
Syria is not a party. 

"The symptoms of an incapacitating agent are temporary. If someone is
exposed to BZ, they are likely to be confused, perhaps to hallucinate,"
said Amy Smithson, a senior fellow with the James Martin Center for
Nonproliferation Studies. "While it is not good news that a chemical
agent of any kind may have been used in the Syrian conflict, this Agent
15 is certainly on the less harmful end of the spectrum of chemical
warfare agents believed to be in the Syrian arsenal." 

The Cable spoke with two doctors who were on the scene in Homs on Dec.
23 and treated the victims. Both doctors said that the chemical weapon
used in the attack may not have been Agent 15, but they are sure it was
a chemical weapon, not a form of tear gas. The doctors attributed five
deaths and approximately 100 instances of severe respiratory, nervous
system, and gastrointestinal ailments to the poison gas. 

"It was a chemical weapon, we are sure of that, because tear gas can't
cause the death of five people," said Dr. Nashwan Abu Abdo, a
neurologist who spoke with The Cable from an undisclosed location inside
of Homs. 

Abdo said the chemical agent was delivered by a tank shell and that the
range of symptoms varied based on the victim's proximity to the poison.
The lightly affected people exhibited gastrointestinal symptoms, nausea,
vomiting, and abdominal pain, he said. Victims who received a higher
concentration of the poison, in addition to the gastrointestinal
symptoms, showed respiratory symptoms as well. 

"The main symptom of the respiratory ailments was bronchial secretions.
This particular symptom was the cause of the death of all of the
people," he said. "All of them died choking on their own secretions." 

The doctors said their conclusion that the poison was a chemical agent
and not tear gas was based on three factors: the suddenness of the
deaths of those who were directly exposed, the large number of people
affected, and the fact that many victims returned with recurring
symptoms more than 12 hours after they had been treated, meaning that
the poison had settled either in their nervous systems or fat tissue. 

"They all had miosis -- pinpoint pupils. They also had generalized
muscle pain. There were also bad symptoms as far as their central
nervous system. There were generalized seizures and some patients had
partial seizures. This actually is proof that the poison was able to
pass the blood-brain barrier," Abdo said. "In addition, there was acute
mental confusion presented by hallucinations, delusions, personality
changes, and behavioral changes." 

The doctors on the scene said they were not able to pinpoint the poison
because they lacked the advanced laboratory equipment needed. They took
blood, hair, saliva, and urine samples, but those samples are no longer
viable for testing because too much time has passed, they said. 

"We took many samples, we kept them, but we cannot get them anywhere
because we are in the besieged Homs area," he said. "We are not 100
percent sure what poison was used, but we can say with firm statement
that it was not tear gas, that's for sure." 

The State Department, in response to inquiries from The Cable, declined
to comment on the secret cable from Istanbul or say whether or not
chemical weapons were used in the Homs attack, but said that the
administration believes Assad's chemical weapons are secure. 

"I'm not going to comment on the alleged content of a classified cable,"
State Department Spokesman Patrick Ventrell told The Cable. "As you
know, the United States closely monitors Syria's proliferation-sensitive
materials and facilities, and we believe Syria's chemical weapons
stockpile remains secured by the Syrian government. We have been clear
that if Assad's regime makes the tragic mistake of using chemical
weapons or failing to secure them, it will be held accountable." 

Shifting red lines 

The White House's threats to react to Assad's WMD activity have softened
over time. In Obama's Aug. 20 statement, he indicated that "a whole
bunch of chemical weapons moving around" would trigger U.S. action. 

Obama then shifted his warning to Assad about red lines in December,
after intelligence reports stated that the Syrian regime had moved some
precursor chemicals out of storage and mixed them, making them easier to
deploy. Now, Obama's red line is that the United States will react if
Syria uses these weapons. 

"The use of chemical weapons is and would be totally unacceptable,"
Obama said Dec. 3, directing his comments at Assad. "If you make the
tragic mistake of using these weapons, there will be consequences and
you will be held accountable." That same day, Secretary of State Hillary
Clinton added: "we are certainly planning to take action if that
eventuality were to occur." 

Outside analysts worry that the administration's red line may have
shifted again. 

"Given the fact you have that in a cable, this indicates that the Obama
administration may not simply jump into the conflict because chemical
agents are used," said Andrew Tabler, senior fellow at the Washington
Institute for Near East Policy. "Assad has a much better idea now of
what he can do and get away with." 

"This shows that actually the red line on chemical weapons is not clear
and that the regime may be able to use some chemical agents, and the
response might not be immediate," he said. 

On Jan. 11, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Martin Dempsey
said that the U.S. government and the international community doesn't
have the capability to prevent Assad from using chemical weapons if he
chooses to do so. 

"The act of preventing the use of chemical weapons would be almost
unachievable... because you would have to have such clarity of
intelligence, you know, persistent surveillance, you'd have to actually
see it before it happened, and that's -- that's unlikely, to be sure,"
Dempsey said. "I think that Syria must understand by now that the use of
chemical weapons is unacceptable. And to that extent, it provides a
deterrent value. But preventing it, if they decide to use it, I think we
would be reacting." 

Abdo, the Syrian neurologist, said that the doctors treating civilians
inside Homs have run out of even the basic medicines they have been
using to bring a level of comfort to the victims, such as the drug
atropine. 

"We hope this information will reach the people in the American
government so maybe they will help us," he said. "If the regime does
this one more time, we don't have the antidote in our hands anymore and
we can't treat it. It's very urgent."

groet,

Sjoerd